ANALYSIS OF DEPENDENCE OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION METALURGICAL ENTERPRISE FROM METEOFAKTOR

Abstract

The urgent problem of a modern metallurgical enterprise is to increase its energy efficiency, which is primarily related to energy saving. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of ambient temperature and cloudiness on the energy consumption of Dniprospetsstal PJSC. Information for the winter and summer periods of 2018–2021 is presented as input data. The influence of temperature on energy consumption depends not only on the state of the heating system, but also on the value of the temperature itself. The increase in the load on the power system in August and December is a consequence of temperature fluctuations. Accounting for the set of meteorological factors allows to significantly increase the accuracy of forecasts of energy consumption of metallurgical enterprises and, accordingly, to increase the efficiency of planning and management of the functioning modes of enterprises of the energy industry. Methodology. Using Gretl software, which is designed for statistical analysis and econometric evaluations, a multivariate regression analysis was performed to determine regression parameters with stochastic variables temperature and cloudiness. In this package, graphs and models of dependences of energy consumption on temperature and cloudiness were built. During the experiments, the quality criteria of the models were determined and the suitability of the models was evaluated using Fisher's F-criterion. All constructed models are generally adequate for each of the 8 cases, and some of them can be used to make predictions. The scientific novelty of the proposed research lies in the fact that the impact of weather factors on the energy consumption of a metallurgical enterprise was investigated for the first time using the Gretl econometric package. Conclusions. The conducted studies showed that in the winter period of the year, energy consumption significantly depends on the temperature (at the level of 5%) and does not depend on cloudiness at all. Regarding the summer period, it can also be argued that energy consumption depends on temperature, but it is much lower.