МATHEMATICAL MODELING OF THE VULNERABILITY OF THE INFORMATION SYSTEM AND FORECASTING OF ITS PROTECTION POSSIBILITIES

Abstract

The issue of the article is devoted to the study of the application of mathematical models for the analysis and improvement of the work of cyber security and information protection systems. The relevance of the work is determined by the modern challenges of the digital age, when information systems become the objects of numerous modern attacks (electronic skimming, phishing, malicious software (Malware), DDoS attacks and cross-site scripting (XSS), aimed at theft, destruction, damage or compromise data. Special attention is paid to the use of differential equations and systems of differential equations to model the operation of the protection system, which allows analyzing the interaction of attacking subjects (criminals) and protective systems, taking into account the uneven number of attacks and the dynamic nature of threats. The scientific article substantiates the feasibility of using differential equations to describe dynamic changes in cyber security systems. In particular, a technique for analyzing the volume and intensity of attacks for a certain period of time (for a short-term forecast that is dependent on the initial indicators of the system) is proposed to determine the performance of the data protection system.In this context, the applicability of differential equations and systems of differential equations for evaluating the effectiveness of current cyber protection measures is considered, which allows predicting the level of ensuring operational response to threats when potential incidents change. The objective of the work is to review and evaluate the place of differential equations and systems of differential equations in modeling the operation of the information protection system. Methodology. As part of the study, a simulation of the response of the information protection system to unauthorized external influence on information storage facilities was carried out. The capabilities and role of mathematical modeling in determining the required amount of resources and their potential to ensure the stable operation of information systems are demonstrated. The developed approaches make it possible to adapt countermeasures to the nature and number of threats, including the use of various software tools, optimization of the number of tools or methods to improve the quality characteristics of systems. The novelty of this study is to use the mathematical method of differential equations to evaluate the effectiveness of the information protection system and short-term forecasting based on the obtained results. The results. The obtained results have a practical purpose (to diagnose the ability of the cyber security system to prevent unauthorized influence) and can be used for the further development of new algorithms for ensuring cyber security, optimizing the operation of protective systems and increasing their effectiveness in the conditions of a constantly changing cyber landscape.